As September 30 approaches, the upcoming parliamentary elections in Slovakia are drawing considerable attention. Smer and Progresívne Slovensko have been consistently leading the preference polls, but the composition of the National Council is still in question due to several parties hovering near the electability threshold. This makes the ongoing pre-election campaign unusually fierce and socially polarizing even by Slovak standards. It is dominated by cultural and value-related topics, primarily the rights of the LGBTI+ community, refugees, mortgages and even bears. 

But do these issues resonate with the Slovak voters? What are their expectations from the next government? Who should define the vision of Slovakia’s future? Data from the latest wave of the continuous survey “Ako sa máte, Slovensko? (ASMS) (How are you, Slovakia?)” can provide the answers. 

PART 1: What is the likely turn-out of the elections?

The political scene in Slovakia has been fragmented for a long time, and several parties compete for voters with the same profile in each part of the spectrum. There are more variables influencing the outcome of the September elections than ever before. Under the current conditions, only three parties – Smer, Progresívne Slovensko and Hlas – can be certain of a place in the National Council. The Republika movement is also well-positioned to secure a spot in the parliament. Other parties cannot be sure to cross the 5% threshold (in case OĽaNO and friends, the threshold is 7%). These parties include SaS, Demokrati, KDH, Sme rodina and SNS. 

Given this context, what are the most likely outcomes for the makeup of the new government? 

While the parties’ positions are quite clear, predicting their coalition choices is currently almost impossible. Most are showing reluctance towards any alliance with Republika. At this juncture, four plausible scenarios are being considered for the post-election configuration. 

Scenario 1 – The government of Smer with partners: Preference surveys have been positioning Smer as the winner of the elections for several months now. SNS and Hlas offer themselves as the most natural partners in the coalition. KDH and Sme rodina are also possible coalition partners, provided they secure a spot in the National Council. In certain cases, they could possibly count with the support of the Republika movement. Based on their electoral programs, it is anticipated that this government will prioritize strengthening the industry, endorse dual education, and foster a protectionist economy to benefit domestic production, while maintaining a more hostile approach against international corporations, especially with regard to trade chains and financial services. Nonetheless, the Smer government is expected to uphold a pro-European stance on crucial geopolitical issues. 

Scenario 2 – The government of Progresívne Slovensko with partners 

The victory of Progresívne Slovensko cannot currently be ruled out either. However, due to the expected composition of the National Council, its coalition potential is weaker than that of Smer. Hlas, SaS, KDH or Sme rodina could form a potential partnership with PS. Hlas and Progresívne Slovensko share common ground when it comes to their programs. However, considering the history of the party, the background of some of its members (several having been a part of Smer), and their sponsors, the possibility of Hlas choosing to join a government with Smer cannot be dismissed. Provided that PS is willing to compromise on its cultural and ethical value priorities, a government under the leadership of Progresívne Slovensko could potentially be established. Its vision would likely include a gradual shift towards fostering innovation in economy and business, emphasizing progress and future-readiness. Consolidation of public finances will be one of the top priorities.

Scenario 3 – Minority government: Should Smer fail to win more than 76 seats together with Hlas and SNS, a minority government scenario, with the support of the Republika movement, could be considered. The same scenario could occur if Progresívne Slovensko becomes the winner of the elections and, together with Hlas and/or SaS, does not achieve enough seats in the National Council. 

What is a minority government? 

A minority government is a government in which the ruling party, or a coalition of parties, does not have the majority of votes in the National Council. This means that the government does not have enough support to pass their political proposals and laws without the help of other parties/MPs. Such a situation brings several problems, such as instability, complicated negotiations, dependence on the support of other parties and the susceptibility of such a government to fall. Slovakia has so far had two minority governments and a relatively bad experience with their governance. 

Scenario 4 – New elections: The combination of a fierce election campaign, animosities between several political party leaders, and unexpected election results can lead to a deadlock, when it is not possible to form a government. Under these circumstances, the only solution would be to hold new elections. 

PART 2: Tournout might be as high as 70%, the undicided will determine the composition of the new government  

The upcoming elections are often seen as critical in determining the country’s future course. This is underscored by voter turnout predictions, which estimate it to reach up to 70%. To put this into perspective, the 2020 elections saw a turnout of 65.8%. 

Under the existing electoral legislation, preference surveys for parties vying for National Council seats can be published as late as two days before polling stations open. This near-to-the-wire information on a party’s chances can significantly sway the final election outcome, thereby influencing the composition of Slovakia’s new government. 

• Not all party sympathizers are clear about their choice: According to the current ASMS data, gathered about a month before the elections, approximately a quarter of the people (26%) who plan to vote say they have not yet decided who to vote for, and will make the final decision only on the election day. The share of hesitant voters among the sympathizers of individual political parties is relatively varied. The Smer party and the Republika movement have the smallest share of the undecided, while almost 30% of KDH sympathizers and more than a fifth of Sme rodina sympathizers are undecided about who they will vote for. 
• The rescue syndrome from the last elections may repeat: Since several parties are hovering on the threshold of electability, the democratic voter may feel motivated to vote for parties such as SaS or Demokrati to strengthen the chances of creating a majority coalition with Progresívne Slovensko as its leader. 
• Votes from abroad can also shuffle the cards: The preferences of Slovak voters from abroad do not show in surveys. 72,993 Slovak citizens applied to vote by mail, and only those ballots delivered to the Ministry of the Interior before September 29, 2023, 12:00 p.m. will count in the election results. It is assumed that Progresívne Slovensko will get the majority of these votes. 
• The young voters’ interest in the elections is increasing: Several mobilization campaigns were dedicated to the youngest voters, encouraging them not to throw away their vote. According to the Ipsos agency survey data, the interest of young people (18-25 years) to participate in the elections increased by 16 percentage points to 68% in the period from April to August 2023. 

PART 3: The campaign fails to address voter expectations, party programs do not sway their decisions

More than half of Slovaks are convinced that it is the elected representatives and the government who should be responsible for defining the vision of Slovakia’s future. However, people do not primarily follow the parties’ political programs in their decision-making, but rather prefer the trust and long-term positions of the parties. Collectively, these factors are decisive for more than half of the voters. The program is a key factor for only less than a fifth of the voters. 

Almost 90% of Slovaks think that political parties do not pay attention to important issues at all or pay little attention to them during the election campaign, reveals the new ASMS survey. At the same time, up to 76% of respondents expect the new government to be able to solve their genuine problems. 

Which areas do Slovaks consider to be the top priorities for the new government? 

• Healthcare is a clear priority with a great personal impact: ASMS data show clearly and over a long period of time that healthcare is a topic that should become the top-tier priority in the new government’s agenda. In contrast, healthcare is evidently not one of the primary topics of the pre-election debates, and the positions of individual parties in this sector will not have a significant impact on their election results. The mismatch between voters’ expectations and the priorities of most parties who show the potential to form a new government is also underlined by the presented election programs, where healthcare and solutions to its problems do not, with a few exceptions, receive special attention.     
• Slovaks demand justice: Similar to 2020, the issue of justice strongly resonates in these elections. After a series of corruption cases and long-term problems in the Slovak justice system, the society expects a change. The recent data show that roughly two-thirds of Slovaks include the fight against corruption and the creation of an independent or impartial Judiciary among the top three priorities for the future cabinet. However, the results of pre-election polls indicate that it will be extremely difficult for the next government coalition to find acceptable solutions in this area. 
• Value-based themes that divide society dominate the campaign: Despite the recent heightened attention from politicians, the rights of sexual minorities are not viewed by Slovaks as a priority issue for the incoming government to address. Several conservative and populist parties, with a genuine chance of joining the government, have predominantly shaped the pre-election discourse through emotional appeals. Over the long term, this trend could pose a significant risk. Failure to solve the genuine problems of Slovaks, whose call for solutions remains unheard, will bring an even higher level of social mistrust in politics and the democratic system in the future. 

PART 4: How to prepare for the post-election situation 

It certainly does not end with the elections. The post-election period is set to usher in a reshuffling of key players in government positions, ministries, and the parliament. Alongside the introduction of numerous new stakeholders, significant discussions concerning the program and priorities of the new government are anticipated. 

At Sesame, we will be happy to help you navigate the post-election situation thanks to:

• • • Stakeholder mapping to help you navigate the complex political environment and identify whom to engage
    • Public Affairs strategy to guide your priorities and activities after the election
    • Stakeholder outreach and engagement to communicate your priorities to the new government and advocate towards the new government’s manifesto

** “Ako sa máte Slovensko?” is a continuous survey that has been monitoring the attitudes of people in Slovakia on important societal issues since 2020. It is a joint project of the research company MNFORCE, communication agency Seesame, the Institute of Sociology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Social Communication Research of the Slovak Academy of Sciences.

This Public Affairs Update was prepared by our Senior Public Affairs Team

• Anna Michalková, Head of Public Affairs & Partner
• Alexandra Katkinová, Senior Manager
• Robert Antl, Senior Research Specialist

Contact: pa@seesame.com