PART 1: After less than four years, Smer is back

• The polls suggested a tight race between Progresívne Slovensko and Smer. However, when the ballots were counted, Smer emerged victorious with 22.94% of the vote, securing a 5% lead and clinching the election. At 17.96%, the second-strongest mandate went to the liberal green party, Progresívne Slovensko. Hlas came third with 14.7%. 
• In total, seven parties made it to the parliament. After a seven-year hiatus, the conservative Kresťansko demokratické hnutie (KDH) made a comeback, garnering 6.82% of the vote. In contrast, three parties that were previously in the parliament fell short of passing the 5% threshold. The far-right Republika (4.75%), Demokrati led by former PM Eduard Heger (2.93%) and Sme rodina (2.21%) were left outside the parliament gates. 

Election highlights

• Turnout was 68.51%, the highest since 2002. 16.5% of the votes were lost. 
• Progresívne Slovensko (61.7%) overwhelmingly won the election from abroad. Smer had 6.1%. 
• A historic number of women (33) entered parliament. This is mainly thanks to Progresívne Slovensko (PS), where up to half of the elected female MPs will serve. 
• Robert Fico, leader of Smer, received the highest number of preferential votes: 531 528.

PART 2: Hlas will decide the composition of the new government

According to tradition, President Čaputová will entrust the formation of the government to the leader of the winning party. In the coming weeks, Smer will hold negotiations on a possible coalition. Robert Fico has several options for putting together a majority in the parliament (76 MPs), but one thing is clear already – nothing will be possible without Hlas. 

When can we expect the new government?

The process of forming a new government in Slovakia is not explicitly defined in the country’s constitution. The president and the leader of the winning party will agree on a deadline by which the government should be formed. Negotiations are anticipated to commence as early as Monday (October 2nd). Fico has hinted that he needs about 2 weeks before it is clear with whom and how he will govern. If he fails, the president will task the second-largest party, Progresívne Slovensko, with coalition formation. 

According to the constitution, the newly elected parliament must convene within 30 days of announcing the election results. The President of Slovakia, Zuzana Čaputová, will call the inaugural session of the new National Council. If she does not do so, the new deputies will automatically convene on October 30th. Boris Kollár, the current Speaker of Parliament from Sme rodina, will oversee the first meeting, including the oath-taking of new MPs. Following this, MPs will elect a new speaker, and Kollár will hand over leadership.

After the appointment, the new government will have 30 days to present its Government Manifesto to the parliament. If the National Council rejects the government’s program statement three times consecutively, the president will dissolve the parliament, leading to new parliamentary elections.

During this transition period, the existing caretaker government remains in power until the new cabinet is appointed. 

Post-election scenarios

Considering the allocation of parliamentary seats, there are four potential scenarios for building a majority coalition, with Hlas being a key player in each one. As such, Peter Pellegrini’s party holds a distinctive position, and the outcome will hinge on its choice, determining which of these scenarios will come to fruition.

Such a three-way coalition appears to be the most likely for now. In the parliament, Smer, Hlas and SNS would rely on a fragile majority of 79 mandates. However, Fico himself stated that he sees a comfortable majority in this connection. Even if the Smer leader would prefer this constellation, the three-coalition faces several obstacles. One of them is the strained relationship between Fico and Pellegrini, who left Smer in 2020 and founded a new party. ministers and therefore, if Smer and Hlas will rule together, Fico and Pellegrini will not be able to remain in the executive at the same time. Here, several scenarios are possible for the redistribution of power between the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Parliament. The candidacy of one of them for the presidency is not ruled out. 

A significant factor that speaks against the formation of such a coalition is the SNS party. Almost all the members who made it onto the party’s candidate list for the National Council are not its members. Furthermore, they are politically problematic individuals, belonging to the political extreme and promoters of disinformation and conspiracy theories. This could be one of the reasons why Hlas eventually rejects the government with SNS.

Prime Minister: In this scenario, the most likely PM is Robert Fico. If Hlas is able to negotiate good conditions, which will include the acquisition of key ministries, it is likely that the party will enter a government under the leadership of Fico.

What to expect from the government:

• Protectionist economic policies: In this government setup, there will be a great focus on fostering domestic production. The government is expected to take a more confrontational stance toward international corporations, particularly those engaged in trade chains and financial services. Key priorities in this area will include implementing a bank levy or other special taxes on banks, reducing food prices, introducing food quotas and other measures that will place pressure on food chains and retailers.
• Strengthening the traditional industry and supporting dual education. 
• Agricultural reform will be one of the priorities for SNS. The party hopes to make the Ministry of Agriculture a cornerstone department within its agenda.
• Amendment of the Labor Code with the aim of strengthening the rights of employees and increasing the minimum wage. The importance of trade unions will grow. 
• Social issues such as increasing pensions.  
• Conservative stance on human rights issues.
• A gradual shift away from the country’s pro-Western orientation, with an increase in pro-Russian narratives and a greater prevalence of disinformation.

Unless the government implements new and enduring measures to consolidate public finances, its state will deteriorate significantly each year. In the absence of reforms, the nation’s debt is projected to surpass 60% of the gross domestic product (GDP) within a mere three years and, in approximately 15 years, it will approach 100% of GDP. This situation would put Slovakia at risk of experiencing a scenario akin to that of Greece.

The second alternative is a three-coalition comprised of Smer, Hlas, and KDH, which would command a majority with 81 seats. While KDH leader Milan Majerský currently upholds the statement that they won’t enter a coalition with Smer, the Christian Democrats are meant to convene the All-Slovak KDH Council on October 14 to decide their final position. Certain members of the KDH, including Igor Janckulik, have stated that, under specific conditions, they might consider forming a government coalition with Smer. One of the stipulations could involve having Pellegrini as the Prime Minister instead of Fico, and they would need to reach an agreement on foreign policy and prosecution. Additionally, their potential role in European funds and the status of regions would hold significance for them. 

The second scenario finds more favour with Hlas, primarily because Peter Pellegrini believes that KDH makes a more compatible partner for them than SNS. Both parties share common ground on decentralization and enhancing the influence of regions. Such a government would prioritize public finances, although banks and insurance companies would still face added taxation. A government without SNS would have greater autho       rity over shaping Slovakia’s pro-European foreign policy orientation.

Prime Minister: In this constellation, Smer would face strong pressure from both partners to make Peter Pellegrini the prime minister.

A four-coalition is the only scenario where the government would have a constitutional majority. However, both Smer and Hlas stated that they would not join the coalition of four, and Fico also declared that the constitutional majority was never his priority. Therefore, this scenario is highly unlikely.

If Pellegrini opts for a coalition with Progresívne Slovensko (PS), it could lead to a four-party alliance with 82 MPs. In such a scenario, Šimečka would spearhead the negotiations, but substantial concessions between PS and KDH would be necessary due to value-related issues. 

Pellegrini has stated his intention to engage in negotiations with all parties. However, by entering a coalition with PS, Pellegrini could risk the fragmentation of his parliamentary group. It’s worth noting that 27 members of Hlas, most of whom favour a coalition with Smer, are now in the parliament. The pressure on Pellegrini to align with Smer will likely come from a larger segment of his party’s leadership, as only three, including himself, didn’t rule out forming a coalition with PS before the elections.

This government’s vision would likely encompass a gradual shift towards fostering innovation in the economy and business, with a strong emphasis on progress and future-readiness. Ensuring the stability of public finances would be among its top priorities. Additionally, the government would maintain a steady foreign policy orientation towards the West.

Prime Minister: The formation of such a government might only be feasible if Progresívne Slovensko relinquished the position of prime minister. Therefore, Peter Pellegrini would most likely lead the four-party coalition.

PART 3: How can the private sector prepare for what’s coming?

The post-election period is set to usher in a reshuffling of key players in government positions, ministries, and the parliament. Alongside the introduction of numerous new stakeholders, significant discussions concerning the program and priorities of the new government are anticipated.

At Seesame, we will be happy to help you navigate the post-election situation thanks to:

• Detailed sectoral impact analysis that looks at the results of the elections through the lens of your business priorities and identifies the implications for business, including potential risks and opportunities.
• Stakeholder mapping to help you navigate the complex political environment and identify whom to engage
• Public Affairs strategy to guide your priorities and activities after the election
• Stakeholder outreach and engagement to communicate your priorities to the new government and advocate towards the new government’s manifesto

This Public Affairs Update was prepared by our Senior Public Affairs Team

• Anna Michalková, Head of Public Affairs & Partner
• Alexandra Katkinová, Senior Manager
• Robert Antl, Senior Research Specialist

Contact: pa@seesame.com